Broken promise: Leaders promised to remove tolls in Harris County once roads paid for

The most important point to note is that the campaign literature for the initial toll roads in Houston did promise they’d eventually be free to everyone once the debt was paid off. That never happened. Unless the legislature passes our toll cessation bill, it never will. Call your state lawmakers NOW to insist toll comes down at (512) 463-4630.

No end in sight for HCTRA tolls, because there never was an end

By , Houston Chronicle, Updated: Aug 17, 2024

Almost since Harris County started collecting tolls, there has been a belief that someone somewhere promised the tolls would go away once the roads were paid for.

Well, the roads have long been paid for, at least those first roads, but the tolls are likely never going away. That’s in part because no one ever promised — really promised — they ever would.

For years there has been talk of what was said at the meetings or on flyers that have rarely, if ever, been shown. While some hold onto the legend as fact, county and toll officials have long called them misunderstandings, if not outright fabrications. There is no record that anyone with the campaign or the county said they were going to retire those bonds and end tolling when voters went to the polls.

That does not mean someone did not say it. Maybe they did. Maybe they were or were not with the campaign or the county. There is no record of everything everyone said at a community meeting and no record of any unofficial mailers that said it. The claim just is not in any ads printed at the time of the election. It is not in the coverage of either of Houston’s two competing daily newspapers prior to the election. It is not in the campaign materials.

What a review of the campaign materials and the coverage of it in 1983 will largely get you is a trip down memory lane of when the United States was debating Israel’s right to conduct retaliatory strikes and plans for the Houston-Dallas bullet train.

Campaign materials, however, do allude to an end of tolls. In 1983 flyers, supporters of the campaign noted that Dallas ended tolls on one of its roads once the bonds were paid and that state law at the time required the lifting of tolls if no bonds were outstanding.

Toll roads will be free to everyone after they’re paid for,” one flyer said.

What voters approved is to borrow money and collect tolls “so long as any of the bonds are outstanding” for the creation and operation of the county’s roads. Specifically, that was for building the Hardy Toll Road, which state officials were considering, as well as building what became the Sam Houston Tollway so the state could build Beltway 8, the free lanes that act as its frontage road.

Many took that to mean that once the first bonds were paid off, tolls would be lifted.

Former County Judge Jon Lindsay, who championed the creation of the Harris County Toll Road Authority, said officials at the time never would have pledged to end the tolls after 20 or 30 years.

At the time of the vote, the broader debate was whether tolls would ever cover the costs of building and operating the roads. Part of the ballot proposition, designed by Lindsay and others, was to structure the bonds so they were backed by county tax revenues. If tolling fell short, it was county taxpayers left holding the bag.

While Lindsay was confident the tolls would cover it, critics of the plan said it could hamstring the county budget for decades.

Instead, the toll roads became the county’s biggest piggy bank, even as the toll road authority borrowed more. In the ensuing 40 years since creating HCTRA, officials have always been paying off something by borrowing more money to build more lanes or add interchanges and paying it all off with more tolls. It is a perpetual project, along with general operations, which dwarfs the initial borrowing. As of last Sept. 30, the agency had $2.79 billion in outstanding debt. Meanwhile, toll road users in fiscal 2023 paid $896.3 million to drive the lanes — meaning that at this point HCTRA raises enough money by tolls in a year to pay off the original 40-year debt.

Toll rates, meanwhile, have not changed in years and actually decreased for those with an HCTRA-issued tag.

Not only does that money pay for operations of the toll roads, it lands in the county’s general road coffers for other projects and helps with the county’s multimillion-dollar plan for better bike and pedestrian access.

Just as in 1983, Lindsay said most drivers do not fully understand the financing end of the toll roads, even if they think it is as simple as borrowing money to pay for construction. Elements of it often elude him, he said, though he was the face of the plan.

“There were people smarter than me behind it, lawyers and the finance,” said Lindsay, 88 and now long retired after terms in county and state government. “I’m just an engineer.”

“I wasn’t going to be around when that happened,” said Lindsay, who served as the county’s head from 1974 to 1994. “How could I tie the hands of someone else?”

Like Houston traffic, the belief that someone promised to lift the tolls never goes away, even as millions of trips take place on the Hardy, Westpark and Sam Houston each month.

“We do get the question,” said HCTRA Executive Director Roberto Treviño.

Toll officials just do not spend a lot of time answering it, as they cannot prove something did not happen or was not said. That the thinking persists among some, Treviño said, “doesn’t come into the decision-making process.”

Instead, Treviño and others said, they talk about the present.

“What we have to be focused on is mobility in the region,” said Tracy Jackson, the agency’s deputy communications director.

Mobility, meanwhile, means HCTRA has hundreds of millions of dollars in new projects in the pipeline, from a planned extension of the Hardy Toll Road to downtown Houston to removal of the original toll plazas along the Sam Houston Tollway.

Since those first users shelled out nickels and dimes from their driver-side window, tolling has become all electronic in the Houston area. Toll booths are now a relic, even if paying to use the road is not.

Getting rid of them, however, will be costly and complicated. Treviño said the plan is intertwined with other projects to make the intersections around the toll roads safer for drivers, cyclists and pedestrians.

“All inclusive, it is going to be more than $1 billion over the next several years,” he said.

Of that, Jackson said in an email that $525 million would be used to retrofit toll lanes, removes plazas and install the new gantries holding the electronic payment systems. Design of the new tolling points is expected to finish in a few months, officials said.

The change is not as simple as tearing out the booths, Treviño said. Traffic no longer needs to fan out to six or seven toll booths, but can instead remain in three or four lanes as equipment above the road tracks tolls. Those bloated areas around toll plazas are now less safe as drivers race through.

At large toll plazas such as the one along the Sam Houston Tollway south of Buffalo Bayou near Westchase, the work will mean a lot of leftover space, which Treviño said officials are also thinking about how they can reuse.

“Right now we don’t have one set plan for each of these areas,” he said, noting the need for park space in some neighborhoods near the toll roads, or wider intersections with more space for bike lanes or crosswalks. In some spaces, perhaps trees or other features could as a buffer from the noise and lights along the tollway.

Harris County Toll Road Authority will spend $525 million over the next few years redesigning and rebuilding tolling points along its roads. The aim is removing the outdated toll plazas and additional lanes and install the electronic equipment above the lanes.

What’s unlikely is a commercial option. Tollways in the northeastern U.S. and Oklahoma often have gas stations or restaurants built in some key areas, such as on overpass exits or quick off-ramps from the highway. Treviño said HCTRA is not considering commercial leases for the extra space.

Where warranted, however, entrances or exits could be added to relieve demand at key crossings, he said.

“The goal is making them an amenity for the county, not just the toll road users,” Treviño said, adding that anything that makes the toll roads operate better means better traffic in the surrounding area.

“There are going to be challenges,” he said. “I think we have no alternative with the traffic you are seeing out there.”

Incoming House members ask Abbott’s Commission to declare end date on SH 288 tolls

Chairman J. Bruce Bugg, Jr.
Texas Department of Transportation
125 East 11TH Street
Austin, Texas 78701-2483

August 20, 2024

Commissioner Bugg:

As Republican nominees for the Texas House, we are extremely concerned by the action the Texas Transportation Commission took recently to spend over $1.7 billion ($1,700,000,000) of public money to seize control of a toll road (State Highway 288) with absolutely no commitment to end the tolls.

The Republican Party of Texas’s 2024 Platform states, “We call on the Texas Legislature to abolish existing toll roads.”

We recognize that in many instances the state cannot abolish existing toll roads without the use of public money, but your decision to do so without a clear commitment to end the tolls is the worst of all worlds for taxpayers and amounts to nothing less than double taxation.

Furthermore, it is our understanding that the state may secure purchase of this existing, fully operational road by issuing nearly $2 billion in new debt, which will assuredly be repaid by the tolls you are refusing to remove. The key diUerence is that at the end of the current agreement with the private operator, the tolls come oU. With this new arrangement, no such end date exists. Again, the worst of all worlds.

Regardless, the Department’s stated position to maintain the tolls on this road even after this large expenditure of public resources sets an alarming precedent. Upon oUicially taking the oUice of State Representative, we are committed to passing legislation that protects the interests of taxpayers from similar abuses. The actions by TxDOT are out-of-step with the Republican Party of Texas’s Platform and we are committed to changing that as soon as practicable.

Sincerely,

Shelley Luther
Republican Nominee, HD 62

Mike Olcott
Republican Nominee, HD 60

Trey Wharton
Republican Nominee, HD 12

Wes Virdell
Republican Nominee, HD 53

Katrina Pierson
Republican Nominee, HD 33

David Lowe
Republican Nominee, HD 91

AJ Louderback
Republican Nominee, HD 30

Andy Hopper
Republican Nominee, HD 64

Helen Kerwin
Republican Nominee, HD 58

Brent money
Republican Nominee, HD 2

TxDOT pushes ahead with buyout of SH 288 private toll road

TxDOT pushes forward on buyback of SH 288
Action would reduce average daily toll rates by 50%

Aug. 23, 2024

AUSTIN – To provide Texans with toll relief and more free lanes on which to drive, the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) is preparing to terminate the SH 288 Comprehensive Development Agreement (CDA).

This action will place the SH 288 managed lanes in Harris County under full state control allowing future toll rates to be significantly less than what is allowed under the current agreement and enabling TxDOT to move ahead with adding more free lanes along SH 288.

“Building roads, reducing tolls, and saving taxpayer money are top priorities,” said Governor Greg Abbott. “All three are achieved with the Texas Department of Transportation terminating the SH 288 Comprehensive Development Agreement. It will allow the State of Texas to receive over $2 billion in added valuation. TxDOT will use the added value to slash future toll charges and to build free lanes on that segment of State Highway 288. I thank TxDOT for making it easier and cheaper for Texans to travel that route.”

The public can expect a reduction of average daily toll rates by 50% in the next few years. Also, TxDOT will be prepared to begin construction of additional free lanes along portions of SH 288 by no later than 2030, eliminating the contractual restrictions and repayment requirements specified in the current concession agreement.

“I have worked every day for the last few weeks with TxDOT, the Governor, and the Attorney General to bring about this historic action to terminate the SH 288 Comprehensive Development Agreement with a foreign company,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said. “It was a team effort. We will provide meaningful relief for Texas drivers along this corridor. Securing a more than $4 billion asset for just $1.7 billion will not only benefit Texas drivers, it will also enable TxDOT to continue investing in and advancing crucial roadway projects across the state. This strategic action demonstrates our commitment to making fiscally responsible decisions and prioritizing the best interests of Texas and its residents.”

“By taking this proactive, cost-saving opportunity, Texas will be able to provide toll relief by reducing average toll rates by 50% for drivers as soon as possible,” said Texas Transportation Commission Chairman Bruce Bugg, Jr. “By terminating this CDA, Texas will also be able to accelerate the construction of general-purpose lanes much faster than what the current CDA allows us. This is a big win for our taxpayers.”

TxDOT believes the cost of the “buy out” provision in the contract is substantially below the value of future toll revenues on the corridor—even with the anticipated reduction in toll rates. It is expected that the “buy out” payment of $1.7 billion would be paid off with future toll revenue bonds, ensuring that other planned projects around Texas will proceed on schedule.

Additionally, Texas can pay off debt at least 10 years earlier than the current concession agreement, allowing future tolls to be removed.

The state intends to assume operations in October 2024. Aside from lower toll rates and additional free lanes in the future, drivers should not expect to see any notable changes regarding maintenance, operations or billing.

Contact Media Relations at MediaRelations@txdot.gov or (512) 463-8700.

The Texas Department of Transportation is responsible for maintaining 80,000 miles of road and for supporting aviation, maritime, rail and public transportation across the state.

Connecting You with Texas

TxDOT Newsroom

DOUBLE TAX: TxDOT buyout of private toll road draws ire

TxDOT Toll Road $1.7 Billion Purchase Plan Draws More Complaints from Elected Officials, Candidates

Officials and candidates see the move as a form of double taxation.

– Aug 22, 2024 – The Texan

A Texas state senator, a House member, and several House candidates have joined in expressing concerns about the Texas Department of Transportation’s (TxDOT) decision to purchase the Highway 288 toll road in Harris County for $1.7 billion and continue charging tolls for its users.

Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park) raised questions about the decision and how much it will ultimately cost taxpayers.

“How much will this cost taxpayers to pay for this existing highway, given that TXDOT plans to issue bonds at today’s rates to pay itself back for the purchase of the road?” Cain inquired in his letter posted on X.

Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston) also sent a letter to Chairman Bruce Bugg of TxDOT expressing his concerns about the plan to continue charging tolls on Highway 288 even after purchasing it with taxpayer dollars.

“This is a form of double taxation and is antithetical to Texas’ tax-friendly reputation,” Middleton stated in his letter.

He also pointed out that the tolls that will be charged after the purchase have the  “same built-in profit rate as the private toll operator,” which Middleton said is “far above maintenance costs.” He called on TxDOT to eliminate the tolls on the road completely.

Joining Cain’s and Middleton’s concerns about the purchase are nine Republican nominees for the Texas House. They include Shelley Luther, Mike Olcott, Trey Wharton, Wes Virdell, AJ Louderback, Andy Hopper, Katrina Pierson, Helen Kerwin, and David Lowe.

In their letter, the nominees recited the Republican Party platform plank that states, “We call on the Texas Legislature to abolish existing toll roads.”

While the group of nominees acknowledges that abolishing existing toll roads may require the use of public money, they decry TxDOT’s plan to continue charging tolls, saying it sets “an alarming precedent” and “amounts to nothing less than double taxation.”

The toll road was constructed by BlueRidge Transportation Group and extends about 10 miles from Blodgett Street in Harris County southward, ending approximately at the county line between Harris and Brazoria counties. According to TxDOT, “The highway serves as an important thoroughfare into Houston and the primary express artery to the world’s largest medical complex, the Texas Medical Center.”

When The Texan previously asked about the total cost of the purchase, including finance costs, TxDOT spokesperson Adam Hammons said it is “too soon for TxDOT to make specific public disclosures of debt at this time.”

About the continuing toll charges, Hammons said that TxDOT anticipates reducing toll rates in the future, but that “during the contractually required transition period,” tolling policies that require some of the toll rates to increase each year based on inflation data on January 1 will continue.

Paxton sues GM over sale of drivers’ data

Texas Sues General Motors Over Collection and Sale of Private Driving Data

General Motors was allegedly compensated for the deals with lump-sum payments and royalties, some worth millions of dollars.

– Aug 15, 2024 – The Texan

General Motors (GM) collected and sold to insurance companies the private driving data of more than 1.5 million Texans, the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) has alleged in a new lawsuit.

Vehicles produced by GM from 2015 or later have technology marketed for the operability convenience and safety of its product, known as the “OnStar” feature. But that technology also comes with tracking capabilities.

“[F]or years, Defendants General Motors and its subsidiary, OnStar LLC have unlawfully collected, used, and sold the Driving Data it obtained through this technology,” the lawsuit alleges, accusing the company of deceptive trade practices. The amount of data collected and sold, according to the suit, is quite extensive.

“The Driving Data collected and sold by General Motors included data from over 14 million of its vehicles, and the data of more than 1.8 million Texans. That Driving Data consisted of the date, start time, end time, vehicle speed, driver and passenger seatbelt status, and distance driven each time a customer drove their GM vehicle. The Driving Data also consisted of information about customers’ use of other GM products, including data collected from General Motors’ mobile apps.”

GM’s largest assembly plant in the U.S. operates in Arlington and produces between 20,000 and and 30,000 vehicles per month with the help of 5,500 workers.

Through agreements, the lawsuit adds, GM stored the driving data in a “telematics exchange” that insurance companies accessed.

“After buying a license, an Insurer could access the respective Driving Scores of the more than 16 million customers whose data General Motors sold,” the petition reads. “Unbeknownst to these customers, Insurers could — and did — use these scores and data to make significant decisions that impacted customers including monthly premium increases, dropped coverage, or coverage denials.”

For the access, GM was compensated with lump-sum payments and royalties worth “millions.” One agreement with the British-based vehicle data company Wejo — which then sold the data onto others — was valued at $70 million.

The OAG announced an investigation into the allegations against more than one vehicle manufacturer back in June, and this is the first suit to stem from that investigation.

“Our investigation revealed that General Motors has engaged in egregious business practices that violated Texans’ privacy and broke the law. We will hold them accountable,” Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a release.

“Companies are using invasive technology to violate the rights of our citizens in unthinkable ways. Millions of American drivers wanted to buy a car, not a comprehensive surveillance system that unlawfully records information about every drive they take and sells their data to any company willing to pay for it.”

The disclosure statements provided to customers from GM were “confusing and highly misleading,” the petition asserted.

“[GM] may use [customers’] information to develop, enhance, provide, service, maintain, and improve the safety, security, and quality of [its] products, programs, and services, and for product research and marketing,” read one disclosure statement from the company.

The suit was filed in Montgomery County and seeks monetary relief of more than $1,000,000.

A GM spokesperson told The Texan, “We’ve been in discussions with the Attorney General’s office and are reviewing the complaint. We share the desire to protect consumers’ privacy.”

BREAKING: Paxton announces lawsuit against GM for selling drivers’ data

This is a step in the right direction by AG Paxton. GM and other auto makers have got to stop spying on drivers. It’s a violation of our 4th amendment rights. Ford Motor Company is trying to patent snitch technology that will rat you out to law enforcement for speeding violations. These auto makers are clearly unconstitutionally spying on drivers, collecting and selling their information, including colluding with insurance companies who are already charging such exorbitant insurance rates most young drivers have no chance of driving, getting themselves to/from work, and living independent lives.

Ask parents if they have the time to shuttle their teens to/from their jobs, every practice, music lesson, or other activity (especially when several of these things conflict with their siblings’ pick-up times or the parents’ work obligations)? The answer is ‘no.’ Making driving unaffordable and stealing all your rights to do so, has no place in a free society or in an economically flourishing one. Auto makers and insurance companies are shooting themselves in the foot to continue down this path. Ultimately, fewer drivers means less revenue for them.

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Attorney General Ken Paxton Sues General Motors for Unlawfully Collecting Drivers’ Private Data and Selling It To Several Companies, Including Insurance Companies

Are taxpayers getting DOUBLE TAXED? SH 288 toll road must have tolls come down

TxDOT to Purchase Houston Toll Road, Questions Remain About Total Cost

The agreement with BlueRidge to operate Highway 288 will end in October.
– Aug 6, 2024 – The Texan

Last week, the Texas Transportation Commission voted to approve the purchase of toll road Highway 288 in Harris County for $1.7 billion.The toll road was constructed by BlueRidge Transportation Group and extends about 10 miles from Blodgett Street in Harris County southward, ending approximately at the county line between Harris and Brazoria Counties. According to the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT), “The highway serves as an important thoroughfare into Houston and the primary express artery to the world’s largest medical complex, the Texas Medical Center.”

The original comprehensive development agreement gave TxDOT the right to terminate the agreement “if the department determines in its discretion that a termination is in the department’s best interest.”

TxDOT spokesperson Adam Hammons told The Texan this purchase is not part of a larger strategy to buy toll roads in the state, but is a one-time opportunity based on this specific concession agreement.

TxDOT notified BlueRidge of the termination, effective October 8, 2024.

Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park) posted a letter to X with questions for TxDOT that he believes are important to understand about the buyout of Highway 288.

“How much will this cost taxpayers to pay for this existing highway, given that TXDOT plans to issue bonds at today’s rates to pay itself back for the purchase of the road?” Cain inquired.

To acquire the road, the commission created a corporation and expects that the buyout payment will be repaid with future toll revenue bonds, Hammons confirmed to The Texan. The toll revenue of Highway 288 users will be used to repay the bonds, he said.

“The creation of the corporation allows for the Commission to provide a loan to the corporation that can be paid back through the sale of bonds more quickly than through toll revenues alone,” Hammons said.

When asked about the total cost of the $1.7 billion buyout, including financing costs and interest, Hammons said it is “too soon for TxDOT to make specific public disclosures of debt at this time.”

Cain also inquired about whether tolls will continue to be assessed for use of the road.

Hammons confirmed that tolls will continue to be collected after the termination of the agreement, “focusing on SH 288’s needs and future transportation infrastructure within the region. Future decisions regarding tolling policies, pricing, and operations, will be made under the authority of the Texas Transportation Commission.”

He added that TxDOT anticipates reducing toll rates in the future, but said that “during the contractually required transition period,” tolling policies that require some of the toll rates to increase each year based on inflation data on January 1 will continue.

“It’s very disappointing that TXDOT is going to make a major policy decision that will force taxpayers to pay twice to drive on a road without coming to the legislature for guidance or approval,” Cain told The Texan.

“Using taxpayer dollars to buy a toll road and then charging those same taxpayers to drive on the same road is the equivalent of a double tax. In Texas, that dog won’t hunt. The people are taxed too much as it already is,” he added.

Texans Uniting for Reform and Freedom (TURF) is opposed to all toll roads but favors the state buying toll roads and eliminating the tolls.

Hammons didn’t indicate any plan to end the tolls on Highway 288 in the future.

“While we don’t support issuing debt, we believe having the roads in public hands is better,” TURF founder and executive director Terri Hall told The Texan. She pointed out that the original agreement was made with BlueRidge Transportation Group, a subsidiary of the Spanish company ACS Infrastructure Development.

Hammons did not answer whether TxDOT has cash on hand to pay for the toll road without revenue bonds. He reiterated that TxDOT is providing a loan to the corporation that will be paid back by bonds issued by the corporation.Based on their wording, it appears that neither Proposition 7 nor Proposition 1 funds can be used to purchase a toll road.

TxDOT buys back SH 288 from foreign toll operators

Link to article here.

TxDOT ends agreement with private company overseeing Highway 288 toll lanes

ABC13 Houston
March 30, 2024

The Texas Department of Transportation is moving forward with a plan to end its agreement with the private company that oversees the toll lanes on Highway 288. So what does that mean for you?

The question is: When the state takes over the tollway, could you get a better deal or wind up paying even more?

TxDOT says it’s too early to say. That’s not necessarily the answer drivers want to hear while this is getting sorted out.

“[The drive is about] $17, $18 one way,” Darren Dixon, the owner of a BBQ restaurant right next to Highway 288, said.

Dixon drives the toll road daily.

“I do it every day, back and forth,” he said.

For Dixon and other drivers, a toll decrease would sure be welcome.

It’s the most expensive toll road in the area,” Shelly Nixon, another driver, said. “It’s so expensive. Surely they can make money and save us money at the same time.”

About eight years ago, TxDOT signed a contract with a private company called Blueridge Transportation Group that allowed them to build and run the toll lanes on 288.

The deal was supposed to be good for 50 years, but now, the state plans to pay that company $1.7 billion for the lanes over the next few months. That total is more than $600 million more than it cost to build and maintain, according to our partners at the
Houston Chronicle .

Buying back the tollway and creating a nonprofit corporation to oversee it could make the state money in the long run.

Since the toll lanes opened in 2020, the Chron reports drivers have had to pay more and more, from around $6 to more than $15 during peak commuting.

When ABC13 asked TxDOT whether the buyback would mean lower prices for drivers, the agency made no promises.

“If the agreement is terminated, toll revenue collected after the date of termination and future decisions regarding tolling policies, pricing, and operations, will be at the authority of the Texas Transportation Commission,” TxDOT said in a statement.

In the meantime, Dixon’s bills are adding up.

“I would say, $120, $150 a day, in tolls,” he said. “For my business, I see the receipts and gulp a little.”

EV mandates will force automakers to cut conventional vehicles

Link to article here.

Biden’s EV mandate likely to severely limit how many conventional vehicles automakers can produce

Ford will need to build two fully electric F150s for every gas-powered F150. By 2032, the company will need to build four electric F150s for every gas-powered F150.

By Kevin Killough
March 30, 2024
Just the News

The Environmental Protection Agency has released its final tailpipe emissions standards, which some have called an electric vehicle mandate.

“Make no mistake: This is a coerced phase-out of gas-powered cars,” the Wall Steet Journal editorial board recently opined on the final rules.

The 1,181-page rule doesn’t require auto manufacturers to produce any electric vehicles, and the EPA insists the rule is not an EV mandate.

“The standards continue the technology-neutral and performance-based design of previous EPA standards for cars, pickups, and vans,” the agency states in a March 20 press release.

The rule sets limits on the total fleet emissions allowed from the companies’ vehicles, but the only way to meet the standards is for a manufacturer to, over time, appears be to make a large and growing portion of their vehicle lines electric.

With a mixture of hybrids, which combine aspects of batteries and gas-powered motors, the portion can be lowered, but automakers who continue producing gas-powered vehicles will likely need to produce a lot of EVs to meet the EPA’s demands.

Beginning in 2027, the average carbon-dioxide emissions allowed across truck fleets will be 184 grams per mile. By 2032, that will decrease to 90 grams per mile for trucks.

The Ford F150 is the best-selling vehicle in the U.S. today. The tailpipe emissions for its 2023 model line range from 352 grams per mile on the F150 Pickup 2WD HEV, to 741 grams per mile on the F150 Raptor R 4WD.

Matt Randolph, Sentinel Energy vice president and principal partner, explains in a Substack article that with an average of 430 grams per mile for the F150 line, in order to meet the 2027 EPA standards, Ford will need to build two fully electric F150s for every gas-powered F150. By 2032, the company will need to build four electric F150s for every gas-powered F150.

In 2023, Ford sold 750,789 gas-powered Ford F150s. For Ford to sell just half of the gas-powered F150s that it sold in 2023, Randolph writes, the company will need to produce 750,789 F150 Lightnings, the electric version of the truck, in 2027.

Ford had planned to produce 3,200 Lightnings per week, until this past December, when the U.S. automaker scaled that back to 1,600 per week. Should the company stick to that schedule in 2027, it will be permitted to sell only 166,400 of the popular gas-powered F150s.

By 2032, when the limits fall to just 90 grams per mile, the company will be able to sell only 41,600 conventional F150s, should it produce 166,400 Lightnings. In 2023, the company sold 24,000 Lightnings, but it had aimed to sell 150,000.

Energy expert Robert Bryce calculated, based on data from the company’s earnings report, that Ford lost $64,731 for every electric vehicle it sold. The company pulled off a $4.3 billion full-year net income last year only because its conventional vehicle sales produced so much profit that it made up for the losses on the company’s EV lines.

Should the EPA rule remain in place, the company will lose that revenue stream to support the losses on its EV lines.

It’s hard to say that the electric F150’s appeal to consumers will start to meet the company’s expectations anytime soon.

Compared to the hauling capability of its gas-powered counterpart, the vehicle falls woefully short, according to those who have driven the vehicle. Automotive writer Aaron Turpen wrote in a review of the Lightning that when towing full loads, the vehicle’s range will drop down to as little as 100 miles, less in cold weather.

Writing in MotorTrend, Christian Seabaugh recounted his experience hauling sand and rocks with a Lightning.

The gas-powered F150 versions have towing capacities ranging from 8,200 pounds to as much as 14,000 pounds.

Seabaugh was looking to haul about 4,800 pounds of gravel and sand for a patio-paving project at his home. With three trips, Seabaugh was able to haul all the sand and gravel back to his house, but he had to exceed the towing capacity on the vehicle by a couple hundred pounds.

Surveys show that most F150 owners do little to no hauling, so it’s hard to say how much that limitation will impact consumers buying personal vehicles. Companies looking for work vehicles for their fleets won’t likely be as comfortable with work crews having to make multiple trips in an electric truck that could be done with a single trip in a gas-powered truck.

For consumers, the main concerns about EVs are lack of charging stations, cost of repairs, and range anxiety, which is the fear of running out of charge before reaching a charging location.
The chances that Ford will sell enough Lightnings in 2027 that the EPA will grant the company permission to build enough of its popular gas-powered F150s to meet demand were further dimmed this past week.

The Detroit Free Press reported that Ford is cutting the hourly workforce at the plant in Dearborn, Michigan, where it produces the Lightnings. A year prior, the company had announced it was ramping up production, but as the pace of sales slowed, the Freep reports, the company has scaled back production.

In just three years, scaling back production of EVs will require automakers to do the same for their gas-powered lines.